干旱气象 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 54-63.DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006-7639(2024)-01-0054

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

2021年京津冀秋季降水10~20 d低频振荡特征

韩世茹1,2,3,车少静1,2,3,于长文3,马贵东3   

  1. 1. 中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室,河北 保定 071800;2. 河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北 石家庄 050021;3. 河北省气候中心,河北 石家庄 050021
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-28 修回日期:2023-11-22 接受日期:2023-11-22 出版日期:2024-02-29 发布日期:2024-03-06
  • 通讯作者: 车少静(1976—),女,硕士,正高级工程师,主要从事短期气候预、农业气象研究。E-mail:checlimate@sina. com。
  • 作者简介:韩世茹(1990—),女,硕士,工程师,主要从事短期气候预测及相关工作。E-mail:hanshiru615@163. com。
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-015)、河北省气象局科研开发项目(21ky02)、河北省气象局创新团队-延伸期重要天气过程智能预测技术创新团队共同资助

Characteristics of 10–20 days low-frequency oscillation of autumn precipitation over the
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021

HAN Shiru1,2,3, CHE Shaojing1,2,3, YU Changwen3, MA Guidong3   

  1. 1. China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, Baoding 071800, Hebei, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
    3. Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:2023-06-28 Revised:2023-11-22 Accepted:2023-11-22 Online:2024-02-29 Published:2024-03-06

摘要:

:研究京津冀地区的降水异常特征对提高秋季延伸期降水的认识和预测能力具有重要作用。
近年来京津冀地区“夏雨秋下”现象频繁发生,表现出秋季降水强度增强、极端降水增多特征。2021
年京津冀地区秋季降水为1981年以来最多的一年,10月降水量多站突破历史极值。利用京津冀地区
秋季逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用Morlet小波分析和Lanczos滤波等方法,对京津冀
地区2021年秋季降水的低频振荡周期与大气低频环流特征演变进行分析以探究其异常特征。结果
表明,2021年京津冀地区秋季降水的主要低频振荡周期为10~20 d,低频振荡方差达44%。低频降水
活跃期500 hPa大气低频环流表现为低压异常前存在辐合运动,有利于低层异常气旋发展加强和上升
运动加强;低频降水活跃期850 hPa有异常气旋自南向北移动至京津冀上空,有利于南方暖湿气流向
京津冀地区输送。水汽输送强度会影响降水过程的强度,水汽输送强度越强,降水强度越大。

关键词: 京津冀地区, 低频振荡, 异常降水, 秋季

Abstract:

 It is important to study the characteristics of precipitation anomaly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to improve the understanding and prediction ability of precipitation in the autumn extended period. In recent years, the phenomenon of“ summer rain in autumn” has occurred frequently in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, showing the characteristics of precipitation intensity increase and more extreme precipitation in autumn. The autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 was the most since 1981, and the precipitation at many stations in October of 2021 broke the historical extreme values. Based on daily precipitation data in autumn and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Morlet wavelet analysis and Lanczos filtering methods were used to analyze the low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation and the evolution of atmospheric low-frequency circulation characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 in order to explore its abnormal characteristics. The results show that the main low-frequency oscillation period of autumn precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2021 is 10-20 days, and the variance of low-frequency oscillation is 44%. The low frequency circulation at 500 hPa during the low frequency precipitation activity period shows that there is convergence movement before the low-pressure anomaly, which is conducive to the strengthening of the low-level anomaly cyclone and upward movement. During the low frequency precipitation activity period, an abnormal cyclone moves northward from the South China Sea to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which was conducive to the transport of warm and humid air from the south to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The intensity of water vapor transport will affect the intensity of precipitation process. The stronger the intensity of water vapor transport is, the greater the intensity of precipitation is.

Key words:  , the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; low-frequency oscillation; abnormal precipitation; autumn

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